Chaotic diffusion of fundamental frequencies

DOI

The long-term variations of the orbit of the Earth govern the insolation on its surface and hence its climate. The use of the astronomical signal, whose imprint has been recovered in the geological records, has revolutionized the determination of the geological time scales (e.g. Gradstein & Ogg, 2020, in Geologic Time Scale (Amsterdam: Elsevier), 21). However, the orbital variations beyond 60Myr cannot be reliably predicted because of the A,chaotic dynamics of the planetary orbits in the Solar System (Laskar, 1989Natur.338..237L). Taking into account this dynamical uncertainty is necessary for a complete astronomical calibration of geological records. Our work addresses this problem with a statistical analysis on 120000 orbital solutions of the secular model of the Solar System ranging from 500Myr to 5Gyr. We obtain the marginal probability density functions of the fundamental secular frequencies using kernel density estimation. The uncertainty of the density estimation is also obtained here in the form of confidence intervals determined by the moving block bootstrap method. The results of the secular model are shown to be in good agreement with those of the direct integrations of a comprehensive model of the Solar System. Applicationof our work is illustrated on two geological data: the Newark-Hartford

Identifier
DOI http://doi.org/10.26093/cds/vizier.36540156
Source https://dc.g-vo.org/rr/q/lp/custom/CDS.VizieR/J/A+A/654/A156
Related Identifier https://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/A+A/654/A156
Related Identifier https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/A+A/654/A156
Metadata Access http://dc.g-vo.org/rr/q/pmh/pubreg.xml?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_b2find&identifier=ivo://CDS.VizieR/J/A+A/654/A156
Provenance
Creator Hoang N.H.; Mogavero F.; Laskar J.
Publisher CDS
Publication Year 2021
Rights https://cds.unistra.fr/vizier-org/licences_vizier.html
OpenAccess true
Contact CDS support team <cds-question(at)unistra.fr>
Representation
Resource Type Dataset; AstroObjects
Discipline Astrophysics and Astronomy; Natural Sciences; Observational Astronomy; Physics; Solar System Astronomy