We examine how, when, and for how long adverse health shocks shape health-related attitudes and behaviors, and perceptions of future-oriented policies. We utilize self-digitized, individual-level death and vaccination records, and policy voting data around the 1918 influenza pandemic. Exposure to influenza causes opposing effects: places with predominantly indirectly-affected families reduce support for public health measures, while direct family exposure increases it. This suggests a U-shaped relationship between suffering and support for health policies. Our findings reveal divergent public responses to health crises and explain recent post-pandemic declines in vaccination rates and trust in health authorities in the U.S. and worldwide.

Data not yet ready to be shared. Further data will be added for revisions. It is supposed that revised data will be made available in 2026.