Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

The study is part of the Rural Economy and Land Use (RELU) programme. This interdisciplinary project investigated the uses of memory and prediction in the current management of the threat to biodiversity and landscapes from tree disease epidemics in the UK. Expanding international trade, increased human movements and climate change are all implicated in the growing threat from tree disease pathogens. Different knowledge sources and historical experiences need to be more widely exploited in order both to raise public awareness of this threat and to ensure policy learning and a more effective policy response. The project specifically compared the historical experience of Dutch Elm Disease (DED) with the present day threat from Sudden Oak Death (SOD), using a combination of archival research, semi-structured interviews, modelling work and economic valuation surveys. The project’s reconstruction of the DEF epidemic of the 1970s is based on an analysis of the DED archives and interviews with key informants involved in managing the epidemic at the time. Spatial models were constructed to map the spread of the outbreak and to explore its sensitivity to alternative management trajectories. These outputs were compared with a related analysis of the still unfolding SOD outbreak, again drawing on interviews with key informants in order to scope the extent, management and likely future trajectory of the disease, followed by modelling work which tested the sensitivity of outcomes to alternative management interventions. Comparisons were drawn between the two disease systems and implications for policy drawn. Further information for this study may be found through the ESRC Research Catalogue webpage: Memory and Prediction in Plant Disease Management: A comparative analysis of Dutch Elm Disease and 'Sudden Oak Death'.

No sampling (total universe)

Face-to-face interview