Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models (replication data)

DOI

In this paper we propose a Bayesian econometric procedure for the evaluation and comparison of DSGE models. Unlike in many previous econometric approaches we explicitly take into account the possibility that the DSGE models are misspecified and introduce a reference model to complete the model space. Three loss functions are proposed to assess the discrepancy between DSGE model predictions and an overall posterior distribution of population characteristics that the researcher is trying to match. The evaluation procedure is applied to the comparison of a standard cash-in-advance (CIA) and a portfolio adjustment cost (PAC) model. We find that the CIA model has higher posterior probability than the PAC model and achieves a better in-sample time series fit. Both models overpredict the magnitude of the negative correlation between output growth and inflation. However, unlike the PAC model, the CIA model is not able to generate a positive real effect of money growth shocks on aggregate output. Overall, the impulse response dynamics of the PAC model resemble the posterior mean impulse response functions more closely than the responses of the CIA model.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022314.0708799949
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:776298
Provenance
Creator Schorfheide, Frank
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2000
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics