Interconnections Between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov-Switching VAR Model (replication data)

DOI

The proposed panel Markov-switching VAR model accommodates changes in low and high data frequencies and incorporates endogenous time-varying transition matrices of country-specific Markov chains, allowing for interconnections. An efficient multi-move sampling algorithm draws time-varying Markov-switching chains. Using industrial production growth and credit spread data, several important data features are obtained. Three regimes appear, with slow growth becoming persistent in the eurozone. Turning point analysis indicates the USA leading the eurozone cycle. Amplification effects influence recession probabilities for Eurozone countries. A credit shock results in temporary negative industrial production growth in Germany, Spain and the USA. Core and peripheral countries exist in the eurozone.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022326.0700753468
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:775510
Provenance
Creator Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Dijk, Herman K. van
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2016
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics