Unraveling the Relationship Between Presidential Approval and the Economy: A Multidimensional Semiparametric Approach (replication data)

DOI

Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of US presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semiparametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible nonlinear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for nonlinear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of nonparametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022321.0720224834
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:775608
Provenance
Creator Berlemann, Michael; Enkelmann, Soeren; Kuhlenkasper, Torben
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2015
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Mathematics; Natural Sciences