Replication Data for: Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy

DOI

Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact of voter turnout, electoral change, and vote buying on polling error. We find support for two of the three hypotheses. There is little evidence that voter turnout affects polling error. However, polling errors tend to be higher where there have been large changes in parties’ vote share from the previous election. We also find that higher prevalence of vote buying may be associated with larger polling errors.

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Compilation/Synthesis

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.11587/X8UZ60
Metadata Access https://datacatalogue.cessda.eu/oai-pmh/v0/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_ddi25&identifier=cb92e199638a3c049d734077de895969ac78c2b39560e273081900ae1167ca59
Provenance
Creator Sohlberg, Jacob; Branham, J. Alexander
Publisher AUSSDA; The Austrian Social Science Data Archive
Publication Year 2021
Rights For more Information please visit AUSSDA's web page
OpenAccess true
Representation
Resource Type Numeric
Discipline Social Sciences
Spatial Coverage Argentina; Australia; Austria; Belgium; Brazil; Bulgaria; Canada; Chile; Colombia; Croatia; Cyprus; Czech Republic; Denmark; Ecuador; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Japan; Mexico; Netherlands; New Zealand; Norway; Paraguay; Peru; Philippines; Poland; Portugal; Romania; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Korea, Republic of; Spain; Switzerland; Turkey; United Kingdom; United States; Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of