A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflation expectations [Dataset]

DOI

Economists widely rely on measures of inflation expectations and uncertainty elicited via density forecasts. This approach, which asks respondents to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges, has proven highly informative, but also faced criticism in recent periods of elevated and volatile inflation. We propose a new method to elicit the full distribution of inflation expectations, which is rooted in decision theory and can be implemented in standard surveys. In two large surveys and a laboratory experiment, we demonstrate that the proposed method leads to well-defined expectations that fulfil both subjective and objective quality criteria. The method is neither perceived as more difficult nor does it take more time to complete compared to the current standard. In contrast to density forecasts, the method is robust to differences in the state of the economy and thus allows comparisons across time and across countries. The method is portable and can be applied to elicit different macroeconomic expectations.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.11588/DATA/R6HZB4
Related Identifier IsSupplementTo https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103882.
Metadata Access https://heidata.uni-heidelberg.de/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_datacite&identifier=doi:10.11588/DATA/R6HZB4
Provenance
Creator Goldfayn-Frank, Olga ORCID logo; Kieren, Pascal ORCID logo; Trautmann, Stefan T. ORCID logo
Publisher heiDATA
Contributor Trautmann, Stefan T.; heiDATA: Heidelberg Research Data Repository
Publication Year 2026
Funding Reference Berthold Moos-Foundation Heinrich Wiemer-Prize for Economics. ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) ; Baden-Württemberg Ministry of Science
Rights CC BY 4.0; info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
OpenAccess true
Contact Trautmann, Stefan T. (Alfred-Weber-Institute of Economics, Heidelberg University)
Representation
Resource Type Dataset
Format text/plain; application/zip
Size 1494; 16693235
Version 1.0
Discipline Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Aquaculture; Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Aquaculture and Veterinary Medicine; Economics; Life Sciences; Social Sciences; Social and Behavioural Sciences; Soil Sciences