A novel approach for bridging the gap between climate change scenarios and avalanche hazard indication mapping

DOI

To assess the possible consequences of potential changes in snow accumulation and temperature and their impact on avalanche hazard, we introduce a comprehensive multi-step framework. It includes the analysis of climate change scenarios as well as the modeling of future snow covers and the simulation of avalanches in a case study region in central Switzerland. Using a downscaling and a quantile mapping approach, we considered the high emission RCP8.5 from the CH2018 Swiss climate change scenarios and simulated a potential snow cover of more than 100 future winters with the snow cover model SNOWPACK. Changing snow accumulation and snow cover temperature was taken into account for two future time frames. The changed parameters were used in the RAMMS::EXTENDED avalanche simulation software on large scale.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.675
Metadata Access https://www.envidat.ch/api/action/package_show?id=f8c79bef-975d-41db-90ad-5bd6b298befd
Provenance
Publisher EnviDat
Publication Year 2025
Funding Reference WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF,
Rights cc-by; Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY 4.0)
OpenAccess true
Contact envidat(at)wsl.ch
Representation
Resource Type Dataset
Discipline Environmental Sciences
Spatial Coverage (5.956W, 45.818S, 10.492E, 47.808N)