Estimating movement rates between Eurasian and North American birds that are vectors of avian influenza (AI)

Avian influenza (AI) is an emerging zoonotic disease that will likely be involved in future pandemics. Because waterbird AI host movements are difficult to quantify, determining the host-specific risk of Eurasian-origin AI movement into North America is difficult. We estimated relative rates of movements (based off of long-term evolutionary averages of gene flow) between Eurasian and North American waterbird populations to obtain bidirectional baseline rates of the intercontinental movements of these AI hosts. We used population genomics and coalescent-based demographic models to obtain these gene-flow based movement estimates. Inferred rates of movement between these populations varies greatly among species. Within dabbling ducks, gene flow varies from ~3-24 individuals/generation between Eurasian and American wigeons (Mareca penelope and M. americana) to ~100-300 individuals/generation between continental populations of northern pintails (Anas acuta). These are evolutionary long-term averages and provide a framework solid foundation for understanding the relative risks of each of these host species in potential intercontinental AI movements. We scale these values to census size for evaluation in that context. Many of these species are also an important an component in the subsistence diet of Alaskans, increasing the risk of direct bird-to-human exposure. We contrast species-specific rates of intercontinental movements with the importance of each species in Alaskan diets to understand the relative risk of these taxa to humans. Greater scaup (Aythya marila), mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), and northern pintail (Anas acuta) were the top three species presenting the highest risk for intercontinental AI movement both within the natural system and through exposure to subsistence hunters. These directly comparable, species-based intercontinental movement rates and relative risk rankings should help in modeling, monitoring, and mitigating the impacts of intercontinental host and AI movements.

Identifier
Source https://data.blue-cloud.org/search-details?step=~012099800EAFA803E31ADFF22CDC4F1557CA9DA9206
Metadata Access https://data.blue-cloud.org/api/collections/099800EAFA803E31ADFF22CDC4F1557CA9DA9206
Provenance
Instrument Illumina HiSeq 2500; ILLUMINA
Publisher Blue-Cloud Data Discovery & Access service; ELIXIR-ENA
Contributor University of Alaska Fairbanks
Publication Year 2024
OpenAccess true
Contact blue-cloud-support(at)maris.nl
Representation
Discipline Marine Science
Temporal Coverage Begin 1992-07-08T00:00:00Z
Temporal Coverage End 2015-10-16T00:00:00Z