During the COVID-19 pandemic infectious disease models have increasingly guided policy, but also fueled a discussion about the role of models in policymaking. Little is known about how policymakers and public administrations deal with model uncertainties and related ambiguities. In contrast to the widely stated evidence-policy gap, the article argues that evidence-based policymaking is a collaborative effort shared among different roles in the policy advisory process. Whether projections guide policy depends on trustful relationships among those producing scientific knowledge and those translating it to political action. We conducted in-depth interviews with employees working along the policy advisory process in the case of Dutch regional public entities of disaster- and crisis response. Results reveal task-sharing among highly specialized roles. Knowledge producers tend to use model results and are more concerned with questions of uncertainties than those focusing on policy implications. Trustful relationships with advisors impact whether models are considered by policymakers.

Date: 2022-09-21