Alternative procedures for converting qualitative response data to quantitative expectations: An application to Australian manufacturing (replication data)

DOI

This paper analyses and extends alternative procedures for converting qualitative expectations responses to quantitative expectations. A number of conversion procedures is investigated, including the probability model, the time-varying parameter probability model, and the regression approach. The informational content of the survey expectations is compared with simple time series models. It is found that the expectations models are superior for many series, both in terms of producing lower forecast root mean square error (RMSE) values and in detecting turning points in the actual data. Survey expectations are also tested for rational expectations in aggregate using the orthogonality test.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022313.1130093760
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:776467
Provenance
Creator Smith, Jeremy; McAleer, Michael
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 1995
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics