Economic Risk, Resources and Environment (ERRE) is a system dynamics model whose purpose is to analyse the financial pressures emerging from global economic growth while coping with natural limits in both energy and agricultural systems. A major feature of the model is to integrate in the same framework both the dynamic evolution of long term phenomena (e.g. energy transition, climate effects) and the short to medium term structures that are more relevant to decision making in the real world (e.g. extreme weather effects, irrational behaviours of markets). Building on the World3-03 Limits to Growth model, ERRE links the financial system with the energy, agriculture and climate systems through the real economy, by means of feedback loops, time lags and non-linear rationally bounded decision making. Prices and their interaction with growth, inflation and interest rates are assumed to be the main driver of economic failure while reaching planetary limits. Developed within the the CUSP System Dynamics theme, the model allows for the stress-testing of fat tail extreme risk scenarios, such as climate shocks, energy transition, monetary policies and carbon taxes. Risks are addressed via scenario analyses, compared to real available data, and assessed in terms of the economic theory that lies behind.We propose to establish a multi-disciplinary Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity (CUSP). Led by the University of Surrey, CUSP will work with a range of academic and non-academic partners to establish a rich international network of collaborative research. The aim of this research will be to explore the economic, ecological, social and governance dimensions of sustainable prosperity and to make concrete recommendations to government, business and civil society in pursuit of it. Our guiding vision for sustainable prosperity is one in which people everywhere have the capability to flourish as human beings - within the ecological and resource constraints of a finite planet. Our work will explore not just the economic aspects of this challenge, but also its social, political and philosophical dimensions. We will address the implications of sustainable prosperity at the level of households and firms; and we will explore sector-level and macro-economic implications of different pathways to prosperity. We will pay particular attention to the pragmatic steps that need to be taken by enterprise, government and civil society in order to achieve a sustainable prosperity. The CUSP work programme is split into five themes (our MAPSS framework). Theme M explores the moral framing and contested meanings of prosperity itself. Taking a broadly philosophical approach we examine how people, enterprise and government negotiate the tensions between sustainability and prosperity. Theme A explores the role of the arts and of culture in our society. We will look not only at the role of the arts in communicating sustainability but at culture as a vital element in prosperity itself. Theme P addresses the politics of sustainable prosperity and explores the institutional shifts that will be needed to achieve it. We will work closely with both corporate and social enterprise to test new models of sustainability for business. Theme S1 explores the social and psychological dimensions of prosperity. We will work with households and individuals in order to understand how people negotiate their aspirations for the good life. As part of this theme we will engage with UNEP in a major study of young people's lifestyles across the world. Theme S2 examines the complex dynamics of social and economic systems on which sustainable prosperity depends. We will address in particular the challenge of achieving financial stability and high employment under conditions of constrained resource consumption. Alongside our MAPSS work programme, we will initiate a major international Sustainable Prosperity Dialogue (chaired by Dr Rowan Williams - former Archbishop of Canterbury and Master of Magdalene College Cambridge). We will also establish an international network of CUSP Fellows from both academic and non-academic institutions.

Model development (software). A book, Resources, Financial Risk and Dynamics of Growth: Systems and Global Society by Roberto Pasqualino and Aled Jones, was published in 2020 by Routledge and describes the background to this model development. Here you will find the appendix to that book (Appendix_ERRE.pdf) which contains the detail equations and model structure alongside the Vensim ERRE model (ERRE_Model_10012020.vpm), a short guide (ERRE Vensim Reader Guide.pdf) and scenario runs and data (*.vdf files).