Knowledge on the colonization process is important to understand and project future species distributions. The classic method to quantify colonization rates is time-consuming, as it requires recording infrequent colonization events during extensive, repeated surveys. We present the novel ‘dating-based approach’ that requires one complete survey of species occurrence and estimates of subpopulation ages to back-date colonization events. These data allow statistical reconstruction of a virtual, repeated survey to estimate colonization rates in response to environmental covariates or connectivity. With only 30% of survey effort, the dating-based approach provided similar estimates of rate and distance of dispersal of a moss metapopulation as the classic approach relying on long-term surveys. Projections of the number of colonization events during the next 100 years differed by only 2.3% (95%-credible interval: [-1.9%; 7.1%]) between methods. The dating-based approach is applicable across spatial scales and promises enhancing species distribution models with urgently needed quantitative dispersal information.

Ett nytt sätt att beräkna kolonisationshastigheten som kräver 70% mindre arbete finns nu som alternativ till den klassiska metoden som kräver mycket mer fältarbete. En mer utförlig beskrivning finns på den engelska katalogsidan: https://snd.gu.se/en/catalogue/study/snd1073

Total universe/Complete enumeration

Hela populationen/total räkning