Hypothetical thinking involves the imagination of situations that we have not actually experienced. We may, for example, imagine the consequences of alternative actions available to us when we make a decision. In such a case we would try to conduct a mental simulation of a possible world in order to work out the consequences of the action. The investigators have recently developed a new psychological theory of conditional statements of the form if p then q on the basis that these trigger a process of hypothetical thinking in which q is assessed in a mental simulation of p. This differs from standard logical and psychological accounts. Our theory has a number of psychological consequences for (a) how people decide whether they believe a conditional statement, (b) when they will assert conditional statements in everyday discourse and (c) the nature of the inferences they will draw from such statements. In a series of experimental studies we examine predictions of the theory with regard to all of these functions. In addition, we study individual differences in hypothetical thinking about conditional statements and their relation to measures of general intelligence. This involves the general claim that abstract hypothetical thinking is better developed in those of high IQ.

Psychological experiments