Timing structural change: a conditional probabilistic approach (replication data)

DOI

We propose a strategy for assessing structural stability in time-series frameworks when potential change dates are unknown. Existing stability tests are effective in detecting structural change, but procedures for identifying timing are imprecise, especially in assessing the stability of variance parameters. We present a likelihood-based procedure for assigning conditional probabilities to the occurrence of structural breaks at alternative dates. The procedure is effective in improving the precision with which inferences regarding timing can be made. We illustrate parametric and non-parametric implementations of the procedure through Monte Carlo experiments, and an assessment of the volatility reduction in the growth rate of US GDP.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022319.0711128432
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:776103
Provenance
Creator DeJong, David N.; Liesenfeld, Roman; Richard, Jean-François
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2006
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics