Emerging evidence that armed conflict and coca cultivation influence deforestation patterns, supplement to: Negret, Pablo Jose; Sonter, Laura; Watson, James E M; Possingham, Hugh P; Jones, Kendall R; Suarez, Cesar; Ochoa-Quintero, Jose Manuel; Maron, Martine (2019): Emerging evidence that armed conflict and coca cultivation influence deforestation patterns. Biological Conservation, 239, 108176

DOI

The effect of armed conflict on deforestation in biodiverse regions across Earth remains poorly understood. Its association with factors like illegal crop cultivation can obscure its effect on deforestation patterns. We used Colombia, a global biodiversity hotspot with a complex political history, to explore the association of both armed conflict and coca cultivation with deforestation patterns. We generated spatial predictions of deforestation pressure based on the period 2000-2015 to understand how armed conflict and coca cultivation are associated with spatial patterns of deforestation and assess the spatial distribution of deforestation pressure induced by armed conflict and coca cultivation. Deforestation was positively associated with armed conflict intensity and proximity to illegal coca plantations. A deforestation model including 14 variables was 67% accurate in predicting deforestation at a 10 km² resolution; removing armed conflict and coca cultivations from the deforestation model reduced its accuracy by 6%. Deforestation pressure induced by armed conflict and coca cultivation was highest in Tumaco and Catatumbo regions and in la Macarena, Sierra Nevada and San Lucas mountains—all areas of high biodiversity and conservation importance. In some regions, lack of governance after the peace accords is increasing armed conflict, and our results suggest that those increases in conflict may increase deforestation in those areas. The methods used here can be replicated to help understand the complex ways in which armed conflict affects deforestation patterns in other regions.

  • Colombia forest cover map 2000- Colombia forest cover map 2010- Colombia forest cover map 2015- Elevation- Slope- Biotic Regions- Soil Erosion- Colombia Departments- Population Density by km²- Distance to nearest previous deforested area- Distance to nearest navigable river- Distance to nearest paved road- Distance to nearest unpaved road- National Park- Indigenous reserve- Afro-Colombian collective lands- Distance to nearest coca plantation- Distance to nearest mining concession- Distance to nearest exploited oil well- Number of armed actions per area- Map of deforestation pressure with the full model- Map of deforestation pressure due to armed conflict- Map of deforestation pressure due to coca plantations- Map of deforestation pressure due to armed conflict and coca plantations
Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.899573
Related Identifier https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.07.021
Metadata Access https://ws.pangaea.de/oai/provider?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=datacite4&identifier=oai:pangaea.de:doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.899573
Provenance
Creator Negret, Pablo Jose; Sonter, Laura; Watson, James E M; Possingham, Hugh P; Jones, Kendall R; Suarez, Cesar; Ochoa-Quintero, Jose Manuel; Maron, Martine
Publisher PANGAEA - Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science
Publication Year 2019
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
OpenAccess true
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Supplementary Dataset
Format text/tab-separated-values
Size 88 data points
Discipline Earth System Research
Spatial Coverage (-74.000 LON, 4.000 LAT); Colombia