A Model of Static and Dynamic Sex Offender Risk Assessment in Vermont, 2001-2010 Archival Version

DOI

Since 2001, Vermont Department of Corrections (DOC) sex offender treatment providers and probation and parole officers have scored every adult male sex offender under community supervision on three measures of static (unchangeable) risk at intake (i.e., Static-99, RRASOR-Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offence Recidivism, and VASOR-Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk) and one measure of dynamic (changeable) risk (i.e, SOTNPS) at intake and then every six months thereafter. This project conducted record reviews to verify the accuracy of the risk assessment scores and examined how scores on the Sex Offender Treatment Needs and Progress Scale (SOTNPS) and one or more of these static risk instruments can be combined into an overall model of risk assessment. An empirically derived decision-making model was created to assist correctional administrators, probation and parole officers, and treatment providers in allocating and delivering supervision and treatment services based on an individual's treatment needs and risk to sexually re-offend. Three hypotheses were tested. First, it was expected that one or more static risk measures (Static-99R, Static-2002R and VASOR) would predict sexual recidivism with moderate accuracy in the sample. Second, a dynamic risk measure, Sex Offender Treatment Needs and Progress Scale (SOTNPS), or a subset of risk factors contained in this measure would also predict sexual recidivism with moderate accuracy and be sensitive to the changes in dynamic risk over time. Third, a combined static and dynamic risk measure would predict sexual recidivism more accurate than either measure alone.

The purpose of the study was to combine static and dynamic risk measures into an overall assessment model that might predict sexual recidivism among adult male sex offenders better than either type of measure alone.

A trained and experienced masters level research assistant used DOC case files and databases to collect demographic, offense characteristic, and dynamic risk factor score, Sex Offender Treatment Need and Progress Scale (SOTNPS) information on each participant. The research assistant also scored participants on the Static-99R, Static-2002R and VASOR (Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk) based on their status as of date of community placement, and when scores already existed, ensured their accuracy. A second rater independently scored these three static risk instruments on approximately every tenth case to assess inter-rater reliability.

Dataset 1 (Primary Dataset) has 515 variables and 759 cases and is comprised of collected field data and recorded and computed variables based on collected field data. ; Dataset 2 (Repeated Data) has 32 variables and 2281 cases and was developed by restructuring the Primary Dataset, and creating recorded and computed variables based on this, to conduct repeated measures GEE analysis. ; Dataset 3 (Inter-rater Data) has 47 variables with 320 cases and is comprised of coded cases scored on the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS) by two raters to measure the inter-rater reliability of the SOTNPS scale. Variables in this dataset include information regarding the participant's treatment status as well as the type of offense they were charged with. The data also includes scores on the various assessments used such as the VASOR. Recidivism variables and treatment progress variables are included in this dataset as well. ;

ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection: Created variable labels and/or value labels.; Standardized missing values..

Presence of Common Scales: SOTNPS (Sex Offender Treatment Needs and Progress Scale), Static-99R, Static-2002-R, and VASOR (Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk).

Response Rates: Not available

The sample was drawn from adult male sex offenders enrolled in Vermont's statewide network of community sex offender treatment programs who were under DOC community correctional supervision between 2001 and 2007. Smallest Geographic Unit: United States

The sample was drawn from adult male sex offenders enrolled in a statewide network of community sex offender treatment programs, the Vermont Treatment Program for Sexual Abusers (VTPSA). VTPSA is the state's integrated network of three prisons and 13 outpatient programs operated by the Vermont Department of Corrections. Sample participants had to meet four criteria. First they were convicted of at least one sexual offense against an identifiable child or non-consenting adult victim. Second, participants entered a VTPSA sponsored community sex offender treatment program between 2001 and 2007. Third, the time period from when they began VTPSA sponsored treatment to the end date of the study follow-up period on December 31, 2010 was at least three years. Fourth, their treatment provider evaluated them using the Sex Offender Treatment Need and Progress Scale (SOTNPS) at least once during the study period and submitted the results to the researchers. At the time of community placement, the men were 18 to 75 years old.

Funding insitution(s): United States Department of Justice. Office of Justice Programs. National Institute of Justice (NIJ 2008-DD-BX-0013).

record abstracts

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR31782
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:449851
Provenance
Creator McGrath, Robert J.; Lasher, Michael P.; Cumming, Georgia F.
Publisher ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research
Contributor United States Department of Justice. Office of Justice Programs. National Institute of Justice
Publication Year 2014
Rights Delivery; One or more files in this study are not available for download due to special restrictions; consult the study documentation to learn more on how to obtain the data.
OpenAccess true
Contact ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Dataset; administrative records data
Discipline Social Sciences